AMD “Firmly In The Rearview Mirror” as Intel CEO Expects Market Share Losses Until 2025
September 9, 2022

Never again in the windshield?

Oy vey, guess that backfired. But then again, name me something that hasn’t come back to bite Intel in the ass.

For the past several years, AMD have been a formidable enemy to the Intel Corporation and their Intel CORE processors much like how USB connectivity has been a formidable enemy to AMD’s 500-series motherboards.

Increased competition is always well and truly good, especially when the world’s largest chip manufacturer takes a shit kicking in terms of performance, with more and more consumers buying AMD Ryzen processors since 2019.

Intel have once again delayed their Sapphire Rapids Xeon processors, highlighting the difficulty the company finds itself to provide something besides monolithic failures as Intel have essentially lost all hope in enterprise computing against AMD EPYC.

From the failures of Rocket Lake to the much better beta test of Alder Lake, Intel seemingly had caught up to their competitors in very few workloads, only to eventually be overtaken again by a considerable margin by AMD’s Ryzen 7000 series.

Intel is a company that has had nothing but abrupt mismanagement for almost an entire decade, they deserve the position they find themselves in, with their current CEO, Pat Gelsinger stating during a recent Evercore ISI TMT conference that he expects Intel to continue losing CPU market share to AMD throughout 2023 and even beyond that, all the way up until 2025.

And if we step back from it, obviously, Ice Lake now with Sierra Forest, next year with Emerald Rapids, in ’24 with Sierra Forest and Granite Rapids, the road map gets stronger, right? And per the earlier question on execution, our disciplines, quality, and volume deliveries are getting better. That said, our competition has done a good job, right? And we haven’t for a number of years, and we’re still on a process technology deficit. Sierra Sapphire Rapids, looking good. We said we’ll go to production this year. That’s looking good now. And customers are very excited about it.

Sapphire Rapids is the best product in areas like Al performance and security capabilities, highly differentiated from anything else in the marketplace. It’s better than the AMD alternative in terms of power performance but not dramatically so. So we win the benchmarks, but it’s not like it’s a compelling crushing leadership position. As I tell our teams if the product is close to competition, it’s not a good product, right? An Intel product will be dramatically better than the alternatives as we go forward.

And that’s what we got to get back to, that if you’re not running on Intel, you’re just not making a good decision, right? And we just have to rebuild that confidence in the industry. We do expect that overall, our data center business grows every ear as we go forward from where we are. As we said, 02, 03, the bottom. But we believe that we’re still losing share at least through next year, right?

Competition just has too much momentum, and we haven’t executed well enough. So we expect That bottoming. The business will be growing. But we do expect that there continues to be some share losses. We’re not keeping up with the overall TAM growth until we get later into 25, 26 when we start regaining share—material share gains.

Intel have stiff competition in the form of the AMD Ryzen 7000 series, which is bound to at least match the gaming performance expected from a refreshed Raptor Lake but is surely guaranteed to surpass Raptor Lake when it comes to anything multithreaded.

Intel as a company however are taking the loss relatively well, that being if you ignore every single manipulative cheap shot they’ve taken at the competition while attempting to launch their failed Intel Xe(periment).

Perhaps Intel knows what awaits them, because you can bank on AMD refreshing Zen 4 within 12 months time with 3D-Stacked cache or V-Cache which will certainly boaster its gaming performance by a significant margin.

As Intel’s own CEO predicts market share losses leading up until around 2025 which by then Intel will hopefully provide a meaningful generation of its big.Little design in the form of Meteor Lake which will hopefully shake things up.

Until Meteor Lake however, it’s a long road ahead for the Intel Corporation as they continue to hypermile their way into relevancy.

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